The plot thickens
Used forscan to shorten the timeout, and that works as expected with power to 12v adapter killed after 30 seconds as proven by a charger adapter with a red led attached. I can see the led lit after doors closed and alarm set, 30 seconds later the led goes out. So unless the bcm is waking up for some reason, the 12v power draw and radar detector theory is out.
Last night I got an alert about 11:30 pm on the ford app, battery saver mode enabled. No thunderstorm, no rain.
Went out and sure enough no power but interestingly the ambient light LED for the front bin where the USB ports and wireless charger are located and the rear radio console were lit up. I think the radio looked like it was back lit but was black, like when you apply power to a TV or monitor but its not got a signal? maybe? hard to tell.
No other lights, overheads doors etc were lit. The problem with these cars is as soon as you open a door lots of things come to life so diagnosing an intermittent like this is hard.
So quick review of the schematics shows that the front ambient led for the bin and the rear console get power from the BCM labelled "DEMAND LP/BATT SAVE (FET)" and gets its power from a 50A fuse 76
And that feeds power to lots of places like vanity mirrors doors etc but interestingly every other location is either a switch such as the glove box or vanity mirror lighting or a Lin controlled module i.e. it gets power but needs a network signal to turn on or feed power to the relevant light. Only the rear console and the led in the bin are directly fed power.
Still no idea why the BCM is turning that FET on and feeding power, current thoughts are radio doing an update, wiring issue/short/water or faulty BCM
So for now I have updates turned off on the radio.
Thoughts and ideas welcome, and any recommendation on a battery monitoring doodad so that I get an alert on battery voltage a bit quicker than the ford app does it, I'd like to try and catch this in the act rather than after the battery dropping to 10V
I hate intermittent faults with long time periods like this. If it did it all the time I'd be done weeks ago
Edit just posting this here for posterity and in case someone else ever hits a similar issue, if this is of no use I'll stop posting unless I find a definitive fix.