Well, it’s happening again.

[JExpedition07]

The headlines the last month or so are reminding me of the auto industries 2008 collapse. Inflated MSRP, wavering sales, mass layoffs, plants going idle. Ford and GM have already begun. And we’ve already set the tone, the GOVT will bail you out when you get into trouble. For those blaming tariffs, I laugh. This correction is a long time coming, and the beginning is here. A strong business can work with and around changing business landscape. We are seeing the auto makers are weak, as consumers aren’t buying new vehicles at these inflates prices. They yet again didn’t look forward and just crammed whatever through. The autos have pushed the envelope and got greedy yet again.... just food for thought.....what’s been on my mind.

 

[Copper93]

When a new truck can easily run $75000.00 MSRP, you have to expect an adjustment eventually. I have a wife, two kids, mortgage and monthly expenses. I'm a middle middle class, adult male, the target audience for these new truck, and there is no I could or would spend that much on a new truck when I can get one 2 years old for less then half of a new one.

 

[John Christopher]

The headlines the last month or so are reminding me of the auto industries 2008 collapse. Inflated MSRP, wavering sales, mass layoffs, plants going idle. Ford and GM have already begun. And we’ve already set the tone, the GOVT will bail you out when you get into trouble. For those blaming tariffs, I laugh. This correction is a long time coming, and the beginning is here. A strong business can work with and around changing business landscape. We are seeing the auto makers are weak, as consumers aren’t buying new vehicles at these inflates prices. They yet again didn’t look forward and just crammed whatever through. The autos have pushed the envelope and got greedy yet again.... just food for thought.....what’s been on my mind.

Your post is very interesting and you may be right on. Prices of these vehicles has to come down. Maybe then more people could afford them and we wouldn't need the layoff and plant closings.

 

[Habbibie]

Well you can see the Koreans & Japanese are selling damn good cars and trucks for a realistic price compared to the big 3, and I'm not gonna lie even when everyone says SUVs are selling more the Japanese got this subject on lock with customer loyalty to the constantly seeking Rav-4, CRV, Pilot, Highlander and dont forget the two best selling minivans which seems Chrysler cant come close to the odyssey & sienna and to top it off they actually look good unlike what the big 3 are pushing out... theirs look like crap in comparison and what SUV's from them has stuck around to get its own loyalty crowd (beside the Wrangler)... none! they're always changing names hoping for the next big thing but the price vs quality... the imports have the upper hand and are the ones controlling the market in this segment.

Ps. Chevy is following in Ford's steps and cancelling the Volt, Cruz, Impala and all the Cadillac/Buick version of those shared platforms. They need more AWD wagons IMO, half of those crossovers are smaller than a civic inside and yet they have the same undercarriage clearance and storage capacity.... like wtf are they making nowadays?

 

[JExpedition07]

I agree with many of your points Habbibie

 

[JExpedition07]

I was reading on some of these CUVs today such as the Buick Encore and Ford EcoSport. They have low power ratings and are very slow, worse cargo space than a car, worse gas mileage. What’s the point??

 

[jeff kushner]

I don't disagree with you JE, I was as shocked as anyone at some of the numbers on the new cars/trucks.


jeff

 

[Flexpedition]

....and dont forget the two best selling minivans which seems Chrysler cant come close to the odyssey & sienna and to top it off they actually look good unlike what the big 3 are pushing out...

Where are you getting your data from? CNN?

2018 US numbers, Jan thru Oct:
#1 Caravan 132,045
#2 Pacifica 100,872
#3 Odyssey 87,692
#4 Sienna 74,227

2017 US numbers:
#1 Caravan 125,196
#2 Pacifica 118,274
#3 Sienna 111,489
#4 Odyssey 100,307

2016 US numbers:
#1 Sienna 127,791
#2 Caravan 125,375
#3 Odyssey 120,846
#4 Pacfica 61,525

In reality its South Korean Kia who is failing the most in this segment. Jan-Nov 2018 they've managed to find buyers for all of 15K Sedonas. In 2017 they sold 23,815 in the US. The Tesla Model S outsells them by ways of comparison.

You can get a Ford Transit Connect in a passenger version, but clearly Ford is marketing these as cargo haulers almost exclusively. If nothing else they outsell the Kia.

 

[Habbibie]

What I find most interesting is how they sell cars with 72-80 months financing yet half of them aren't designed to surpass 5 years of ownership without major repairs

 

[Habbibie]

Where are you getting your data from? CNN?

2018 US numbers, Jan thru Oct:
#1 Caravan 132,045
#2 Pacifica 100,872
#3 Odyssey 87,692
#4 Sienna 74,227

2017 US numbers:
#1 Caravan 125,196
#2 Pacifica 118,274
#3 Sienna 111,489
#4 Odyssey 100,307

2016 US numbers:
#1 Sienna 127,791
#2 Caravan 125,375
#3 Odyssey 120,846
#4 Pacfica 61,525

In reality its South Korean Kia who is failing the most in this segment. Jan-Nov 2018 they've managed to find buyers for all of 15K Sedonas. In 2017 they sold 23,815 in the US. The Tesla Model S outsells them by ways of comparison.

You can get a Ford Transit Connect in a passenger version, but clearly Ford is marketing these as cargo haulers almost exclusively. If nothing else they outsell the Kia.

For every 1 Pacifica I see 5 sienna's & 10 odyssey's. The vast majority of the caravans are fleet owned and operated, it's far easier to get approved for a domestic brand than an import as far as fleet ownership goes.

Also when was the last time you've seen a 10+ year old caravan? I see 1000's of sienna's & odysseys that are well over the 10 year age mark, brand loyalty is very evident here, I've never met anyone in my life that spoke highly of caravans like they do for their Japanese counterparts

 

[Trainmaster]

The economy is definitely tanking. But it was never really good from a working man's perspective. Yes there were some gains in certain niche industries, but generally our salaries have not kept up with inflation. They are actually lower than in 2001 if you count inflation. The profits have been taken by the companies who are building more, lobbying more and sucking more investors into mostly smoke and mirror scams. Quite a few of the biggest corporations haven't turned a profit. Amazon, Tesla, Uber... all smoke.

Autos are another story. There's infrastructure, products, inventory. And massive regulation. The auto manufacturers have to guess which party will get elected -- socialists or republicans to guess what they will be permitted to sell in four years. They have to guess how much money the Federal Reserve will print to determine what Americans will spend -- all with four-year foresight.

The smoke and mirrors are ending. We're in for high interest rates, mass layoffs and a tough market in many job sectors as the make-believe industries collapse.

Hold on to the $80,000 you want to spend on auto metal. Buy gold instead. You may need your money to feed your family.

 

[JExpedition07]

BTW economic downturns or auto industry downsturns are a great time to buy a brand new vehicle. MSRP drops and rebates pile on to keep sales going. You get a new truck while they are low in demand and make out like a bandit because they give them away. You know next cycle things will look up. Most consumers are short sighted, some aren’t.

 

[5150 pops]

I was not aware of this, stumbled across it today.
All the way back in June???

For many investors, those moves are expected to include a partnership with Volkswagen, although Jonas notes that there has been little in the way of tangible updates since the two companies signed a memorandum of understanding in June.

 

[JExpedition07]

NBC and their false information, here is an article. Of course they just blame it on republicans:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna917756

It’s funny how NBC and CNN make these bold claims with no backing. In fact Ford came out and called these stories “incorrect” and “not based in fact or truth” as the layoffs and position changes were planned before the tariffs and is a worldwide company transition not just in the U.S. good on them for throwing some dirt in NBC’s face.

 

[Matticus]

I started to really think about this and the ridiculous price of trucks/suvs when my father-in-law bought a brand new f150 in 2011. After all was said and done, it was almost $50,000. At the time, it seemed like it had so many luxurious bells and whistles to the point of being ridiculous. I think one of the first steps that needs to be taken is we, as the consumer, need to change our buying habits. Start to think to yourself things like "Do I really need power running boards?" and "How much power do I really need?" vs want. I also think there has been a significant increase in cost due to the federal government demanding certain features and gas mileage standards that the consumer is NOT demanding (I think that's only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to gov regulation increasing the cost of vehicles). There are various studies that try to put a dollar amount on how much the cost of a car increases for each mpg increase the CAFE standards have demanded - I think they're probably right.

I'm also a big supporter of the idea that if you can't pay cash for it, you can't afford it. I mean this in the nicest way possible, but if you are financing $50,000 for something that is going to be worth $10,000 (if you are lucky) by the time it's paid for, you are a complete fool. The wealthy people I associate do not/did not finance cars and STILL don't purchase brand new cars. There is a reason they are wealthy. Consider how much the average person loses in both value and interest between the ages of 20-65 years old when they finance brand new vehicles and then consider the lump sum of money you could put in your pocket when you retire if you could go back in time and only pay CASH for USED cars. The amount is staggering

 

[Habbibie]

I started to really think about this and the ridiculous price of trucks/suvs when my father-in-law bought a brand new f150 in 2011. After all was said and done, it was almost $50,000. At the time, it seemed like it had so many luxurious bells and whistles to the point of being ridiculous. I think one of the first steps that needs to be taken is we, as the consumer, need to change our buying habits. Start to think to yourself things like "Do I really need power running boards?" and "How much power do I really need?" vs want. I also think there has been a significant increase in cost due to the federal government demanding certain features and gas mileage standards that the consumer is NOT demanding (I think that's only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to gov regulation increasing the cost of vehicles). There are various studies that try to put a dollar amount on how much the cost of a car increases for each mpg increase the CAFE standards have demanded - I think they're probably right.

I'm also a big supporter of the idea that if you can't pay cash for it, you can't afford it. I mean this in the nicest way possible, but if you are financing $50,000 for something that is going to be worth $10,000 (if you are lucky) by the time it's paid for, you are a complete fool. The wealthy people I associate do not/did not finance cars and STILL don't purchase brand new cars. There is a reason they are wealthy. Consider how much the average person loses in both value and interest between the ages of 20-65 years old when they finance brand new vehicles and then consider the lump sum of money you could put in your pocket when you retire if you could go back in time and only pay CASH for USED cars. The amount is staggering

Reading your post reminds me of two things are that very apparent in today's world,
1. Status quo, this applies more to the younger crowd than the older ones, they buy cars they cant afford to show they're successful enough to buy one when we all know the reality of the matter is NO you actually cant afford it you're just dumping all your lousy income on it in an attempt to show off. This is why so many 20-34 year olds still live with mom & dad and cant afford to pay them rent at the same time.

2. Peace of mind BS, many people try to sell me off the idea that a new car gives them Peace of mind it wont break down vs a used car, we all know the truth is for the amount of money you're spending on this new car you can buy a used one for 20% of the price and spend another 20% of that to ensure long lasting reliability. Save 60% and get a greater peace of mind knowing you're not in debt up to your eyeballs, Laziness and lack of automotive education is key here.

 

[Matticus]

2. Peace of mind BS, many people try to sell me off the idea that a new car gives them Peace of mind it wont break down vs a used car, we all know the truth is for the amount of money you're spending on this new car you can buy a used one for 20% of the price and spend another 20% of that to ensure long lasting reliability. Save 60% and get a greater peace of mind knowing you're not in debt up to your eyeballs, Laziness and lack of automotive education is key here.

This is sooo true. I've heard this from a lot of people trying to justify they're brand new purchase. "I'll bet I would spend more trying to keep a used car on the road than just having a monthly payment" .... dude, do you even math?

 

[jeff kushner]

Even from 1975 when I first did the math trying to convince my Dad that buying a new car was cheaper than used....the math said NO, not even close!

It is always cheaper to buy used for cash based on % of avg repairs.

jeff

 

[cmiles97]

For every 1 Pacifica I see 5 sienna's & 10 odyssey's. The vast majority of the caravans are fleet owned and operated, it's far easier to get approved for a domestic brand than an import as far as fleet ownership goes.

Also when was the last time you've seen a 10+ year old caravan? I see 1000's of sienna's & odysseys that are well over the 10 year age mark, brand loyalty is very evident here, I've never met anyone in my life that spoke highly of caravans like they do for their Japanese counterparts

The Chrysler minivans can be had with a steep discount and or rebate. Honda & Toyota not so much. Plus I justed posted this earlier for the highest percentage of vehicles making it past 200,000 and even 300,000 miles. The Expedition is in both lists. Both Toyota & Honda's minivan are there. The Pacifica prior to becomeing a minivan is there too but not the Caravan.

So the sales leader may be due to lower price while you see more Honda & Toyota minivans due to actual longevity. Too early to tell for the new Pacifica minivan.

https://roadloans.com/blog/longest-lasting-vehicles-the-200000-mile-roster

 

[rjdelp7]

40% 'profit' on pickups and SUVs? The same gas guzzlers, that triggered a government bailout? Disgusting! Then they move factories to Mexico or close one, a month prior to Christmas? Drop the price and watch them sell...