Took some time over the weekend to strip the bubbling paint and see what was going on underneath. My thinking was I'd sand things smooth, prime, and then either paint or put a piece of vinyl wrap over the rear hatch. Exact color match isn't a huge concern for me as even a bad match would look better than the bubbling paint.
The metal under the paint was far worse than I anticipated. An attempt to sand to a smooth surface would end up making holes in the metal. Speaking of holes, I did find one.
Paint and wrap would both look pretty horrible over the resulting surface. I primed the hatch for now and will roll a few coats of white bedliner over it when the weather permits.
Figured I'd post some pics for anyone interested. The job itself was easy and the interior comes apart without issue, allowing quick access for unplugging and removing of the bolted-on stuff (handle, chrome trim with lights and camera, etc.).
Nice little hole there in the center of the pic.
First coat of primer. Porous like whoa.
Other side of the license plate area isn't any better after 1 coat of primer.
I got 3 coats of primer sprayed before real life needed my attention again. Even just primed it looks better than it did.