I would recommend getting the 4WD. I have to agree that a careful and skilled driver can go without it more often than not (I definitely recommend a locker, though).
I spent more than 3 decades offroading in the Army; it just wasn't all that frequent that I had to lock the hubs - part of route planning was to ensure the route was passable for wheeled vehicles, not just tracks.
Having said all that, there were many times when my choices were spend time driving around, sometimes even looking for a way around, or just put it into 4Lo and go.