Wait for 2018, or buy 2017 Expy

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Sopher

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I'm at a crossroads of sort. I could use some input.
I currently have a 2009 F150 Lariat with 100k miles. The family wants me to get a thrid row seat vehicle. So I looked at the 2017 Expedition El Limited. It has all the features I like, in fact the dash it looks nearly the same as my 2009 F150. But I like the newer engines of the 2018 better, especially the anticipated 2.7L ecoboost over the new 10speed 3.5L.

I gather when the 2018 Expy's come out (they say july/aug 2018) the pricing will be slightly higher, but less or no incentives to start. Do I wait for the 2018 and some rebates or...

I can get a 2017 Expy EL Limited now for about 55k. But I'm having a hard time getting the dealer to go higher that 15k on my F150. Even www.kbb.com says 20k.

thanks.
 

dlcorbett

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if you like the expy and you can do without the more modern features of the 18, youll save thousands on a 17. i myself would do a 17, but the 18s has upgraded in all areas i was hoping for it 2 and gets all the newest safety tech. idk if people realize its the safest big truck but is ineligible to get the top ratings due to these features being unavailable. as for the 2.7, i dnt think that will be available at launch, ford will have to tune it to make it a worthwhile option for takers. if its available esp in limited trim, can get 25+ on the hwy and lowers the bottom line a cpl grand, i would take it no questions asked, its already proven in the f150.
 

brick

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I went through the same situation last summer. I ended up with a new 2016, for a great deal. If you don't have to have the latest, you should be able to save big bucks on a 2017.
brick
 

07xln

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The only motor the 18 Expedition is coming with is the 3.5L Ford says the Platinum will get a hotter tune than the lower trims. Which should mean the base motor is 375hp 450tq like the 2017 F150. After reading an article earlier on some leaked numbers the Platinum is likely to be 400hp 480tq. No way they put a 2.7l in it its just to big and heavy and makes no sense. I scored my 17 Limited EL with every option I could throw at it minus 4x4 for $53K. The new model is nice but it looks like a giant Explorer to me and I'm not a fan of the Explorer. I'm disappointed that the power numbers have grown so much over the 17 model but I have to make do with what I have.

If money is an issue get a 17. If not then go with an 18. I doubt there will be any rebates or incentives on them at least for the first year.
 

Flexpedition

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My 2 cents: I'd consider leasing the 2017 you like. Your 09 F150 has 100K, so in 8 years you average 12500 miles, which is inline with Red Carpet leasing. After the 3 year lease ends you can buy it or get into a 2019/2020, which surely by then will be $10K off per every third commercial on TV.

Sell your F150 yourself.
 

jeff kushner

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I'm at a crossroads of sort. I could use some input.


I can get a 2017 Expy EL Limited now for about 55k. But I'm having a hard time getting the dealer to go higher that 15k on my F150. Even www.kbb.com says 20k.

thanks.



You have an interesting conundrum Sopher,

Sorry that this is so long but I wanted to give you some useful info so I hope this helps you. Although I am not going to tell you which way I think you should go, I’ll try to give you a path to a place where making that decision will become very easy for you! I know that most people don’t negotiate for a living but once you’re able to eliminate the “unknowns”, the decision will become much clearer!

Either way you go I think if you end up buying a ’17, you will enjoy it and if you end up buying a ’18, you will enjoy that too! I know that DL has said he’s waiting to get a ’18 and I’m happy for him just as I am for any on here who get to buy a new truck so there is no “lose”.

I’m not going to argue that Flex’s comments about leasing seem to make sense but I never lease but that’s just me. What you guys do is up to you.

I tend to agree with DL in that after everything I’ve been able to find & read about the ’18, that I seriously doubt that it would have the 2.7 as an option so just for fun, let’s take that out of the equation and see if we can break it down this way.

Things that you already know or of reasonably sure of;

Presently, the best price on a ’17 El limited is 55K but you didn’t mention if that’s their price or if that’s your OTD price. I work in OTD but know that many people do not so which is it?

The ’17 doesn’t come with the 10spd, it has the 6 spd. I think those of us that have it, like it but you will have to drive it to see if you do.

The ’18 will probably be somewhere in the 5% to 7% higher range considering the 10spd, the higher level of tech so just for fun, let’s say that changes that 55K to 58K or possibly even 60K because of reduced incentives or higher “overhead” to the dealer etc. So a 3-5 grand increase seems close, agreed?

The deal-complicating trade….they are offering you 15K and you want 20K. Again, about a 5K difference.

Only you know if selling outright is a viable option for you or not but while it’s best to sell, you would have to coordinate to get the “loyalty” money by owning it on the same date that you buy. Dealers are getting somewhere around 1500-1800 for that.

I try to keep the buy-trade as separate deals, get the trade done then the new. They will want to tie them together because this is what they do for a living and are very good with fast numbers mixing percentages, fractions and markups vs deducts. If you are not, a good SM or GM can and will eat your lunch. I can “fly” with them either way but I still try to separate the deals “to make it easier on them” is what I’ll tell them. I’ll give them as far as a “based on buying X model” but never based on a specific price for X!


How bad do you need a dealer after the sale? If like me, you may never have to walk into his lot again so for me, it didn’t matter how far the dealer was that I bought from. They will most likely, never see me again. ANY Ford dealer will do oil changes & warranty work. Will one that you buy from smile more, maybe but that’s it, unless like my GF, you tuck a crap load of free oil changes into the deal. But either way, this is something that you already know. FYI- I got a local Grease&Go that charges me 34 bucks and used my Mobil 1 & my filter but considering how much a pita these are to change (w/o making a mess) and that I don’t have a trench or a car lift, it’s perfect for me.


Your credit- Every single salesman I’ve even know in nearly 60 years has told me the same thing “I could sell five cars a day if I could get them financed”. This is big because a 525 score, no-credit fool is going to get slammed with a high price and higher percentage and Bam, take it or leave it. The 784 score stellar-credit is going to have the SM getting your coffee for you and your SM putting in the sugar because they know that for them, half of the deal is already done!


So those are the things that you know.


Now let’s take about the things you don’t or can’t know. & the really important stuff:


You MAY have not got the best price on a ’17 EL Limited yet. I don’t know where you are located or if the 55K was a OTD price or not. One ploy I have used is to visit any dealer very close to the Dealer I want to deal with and I’ll take an hour, drive one of his trucks then have him write me up a price sheet. No commitment, no down payment. Then roll it up facing outwards and let the Dealer you want to deal with see it. Don’t be crass about it, he won’t need to see their name to know who it is from, he will recognize the form itself….it does work and everything helps.

A dealer with a lot full of ’17 Expy’s will want to get them sold because he needs the space for the ‘18’s

A dealer with only a few may want his space for new Mustangs or 150’s so he also has incentive to get them sold.

A dealer with no spare space on his lot places a cost premium per space per week so again, he has reason to sell.

Since you have no way of knowing what his issues are, you have to be willing to take the time to go to all the Ford dealers until you find the one that “hungry” and there is always one that hungry! Once you hand over your D/L and come back from your test drive while they have run your preliminary credit(they don’t need permission to do this), one of those dealers is going to show his hand…that he’s hungry and your “*****”. My GF doesn’t like when I call them that but I negotiate for a living so it comes with the career.


THEE single most important thing to remember is that we all want to be loved, so treat everyone with respect and work to raise THEIR comfort level by laughing with them, coaxing, cajoling and lightening the mood so everyone knows that we’re all here for a win-win for all. You want them to WANT to help you and you NEED their help so you can help them! Gabbish? Don’t be afraid to let them know that you are ready to buy, happy to buy and ABLE to buy cause half their deal is done by them knowing that you are a Stellar-credit guy! The more they like you, the harder they will work FOR you.

I took my GF with me because when we are together, everyone assumes that we’ve been married for 30 years because we laugh so much, show lots of affection and have fun with everything. This is important because the old time-honored “hardball” method doesn’t work with the people you will meet in dealers. What it will get you is them getting off the boat (leaving the deal) at a much higher price than you need because they don’t WANT to help you because, well, because they think you are a dick!

Also, continue to remind the SM or GM that whatever “hit” he takes by helping you, he is going to make it right back on the next guy! Over and over but not too much….people learn by repetition but get angry at their intelligence being insulted so be subtle but effective.

You need to raise their comfort level so high they will invest the 2-3 hours that it takes to get a good deal done….one other thing, ALWAYS go to a dealer with a full stomach. That’s actually a rule I enter into any negotiation using because when you can’t run on empty and you will subconsciously rush through important details if you are hungry.

Buying a car or truck when you don’t HAVE to buy is a great & wonderful place to be so enjoy it and enjoy the process…..it really is fun and something that we usually don’t get a chance to do very often so make the most, have fun and good luck!

jeff


FWIW: ( http://www.expeditionforum.com/threads/2017-expy-limited.30717/ for the details)

My ’17 OTD price was $53,890.00. With everythingexcept the computer suspension and rear dvd's. That’s taxes(6% in MD), Registration, tags, freight, docs etc. I ordered ZERO adds from the finance guy, no extended warranties, no tire warranties, no paint warranties no warranties on warranties...you get the idea.
 

B-McD

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Jeff - Great write-up! I am in sales too and follow the "kill 'em with kindness" approach as well. One more tactic I have used lately: If you are lucky enough to be able to write a check for the purchase/difference, I pull out the checkbook and tell them that if they hit my magic number I start writing the check and I want to be out of there in an hour. My "number" that I give them is usually $500 or so less than I am willing to pay because they will always come back and want you to "move" just a bit to close the deal. Makes them feel like they got the last say but it was what you were going to pay all along.

May not work on the new Raptor but should work for anything sitting on the lot or inbound to the dealer. Good luck Sopher!!
 

jeff kushner

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Thanks B. I watched a year ago as my school-teacher girlfriend just melted the hearts of the guys at a dealer. They actually WANTED to help her so that she could afford her Rogue. She chipped away at the 22K starting price for a new Select(meaning that it was the new 2016 model but the old 2015 body) and she ended up getting it for 16K & change and she got 7 free oil changes AND free Scheduled maintenance for 3 years. I had asked her if she wanted help before we went in and she told me no, so I just watched in amazement....she was excellent.

FWIW, I do not sell and God bless you guys that do...very tough business and I have a lot of respect for you guys that can do it well! I negotiate deals...mostly for large construction projects or purchasing of large commercial equipment or subcontractors and in that world, there's plenty of times "hardball" is the way to go. If I'm dealing with someone from NY or NJ, then I get rude on top of it because up there, it's a sign of respect.....LOL.

Reading people is everything....often, the person trying to sell the car/truck doesn't recognize that the buyer doesn't want a "friend" and just gets mad at the crude attempts to befriend them...you know, like with the "small talk" as you walk out on on the lot: So, are you guys married, how long, any kids, how old are they...etc...we all know he doesn't give 3 craps if you have kids or how old they are. My GF got mad at me(in a good way) for telling one dealer that "Used to, they died in a fiery car crash" with a straight face but the look on the guys face was priceless!

Yes, I hope Sopher does well no matter what he decides!

jeff
 

Transporter

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Tough spot to be in. If you don't need big time off-road, I would look at this as my play, wait until the last minute possible and get them down as low as can on a 2017 other wise wait again and get the 2018 because of the extras since they are trying to price them the same as the current lineup so getting a 2017 now doesn't make sense to me because you don't all the 2018 goodies but your paying the same price.

So if you really need an off road truck, in my mind get the 2017, BUT wait until the dealers are trying to clear them out to make room for the 2018s to get the best price. So again, either way 2017 or 2018, I say your best bet is to wait. Now if more room is your thing, the 2018 seems to be the winner as the Max has killer second row room, and one article I read said it has stack-able two level back storage and can hold full size 4 by 8 plywood sheets!

Just my take.
 

powerboatr

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good write up
we too, killed them with kindness and drove our dealers two lots nuts for almost a year
their two lots are about 30 miles apart, so they will bring one car to the other for a test drive, or you can go to the other lot and not loose the initial sales person unless you desire.

i agree, walking in with superb credit and owing a ton less than the trade is worth helps alot
luck had it as we had 29,900 miles on the trade...still smelled new.
we owed little.
got a great deal on 16KR 4x4 EL, everything but the rear dvd and 22" wheels. for us it more than met our needs and fell comfortably in what we would pay.

i also each time, religiously use build and price and search dealers inventory at least 200 miles away to find a "fit"
 

Adieu

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I'm at a crossroads of sort. I could use some input.
I currently have a 2009 F150 Lariat with 100k miles. The family wants me to get a thrid row seat vehicle. So I looked at the 2017 Expedition El Limited. It has all the features I like, in fact the dash it looks nearly the same as my 2009 F150. But I like the newer engines of the 2018 better, especially the anticipated 2.7L ecoboost over the new 10speed 3.5L.

I gather when the 2018 Expy's come out (they say july/aug 2018) the pricing will be slightly higher, but less or no incentives to start. Do I wait for the 2018 and some rebates or...

I can get a 2017 Expy EL Limited now for about 55k. But I'm having a hard time getting the dealer to go higher that 15k on my F150. Even www.kbb.com says 20k.

thanks.

Don't buy a new '17 expedition for 55k

It's a good truck but the generation is on its 11th year. And about to change.

Resale will nosedive to new lows regardless of bells and whistles.

You'll wake up with a several month old truck that nobody would wanna pay even 20k for, regardless of bells and whistles....

A 55k truck's gotta look the part. Doesn't really work all that well after a generation change....doubly so in a platform whose fully-loaded version carries Lincoln badging, and triply so with sub-$4K exgubmint models in the same body as the 2k17 floating around.
 

Adieu

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As to dealerships, don't talk finance. AT ALL.

Tell em you got CASH to burn and wanna burn it (hint at "here and now").


Get a CASH offer in writing and then walk away and work from there

Easier to get to the bottom of what's what when you take the extra steps out of the equation entirely.
 

07xln

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Don't buy a new '17 expedition for 55k

It's a good truck but the generation is on its 11th year. And about to change.

Resale will nosedive to new lows regardless of bells and whistles.

You'll wake up with a several month old truck that nobody would wanna pay even 20k for, regardless of bells and whistles....

A 55k truck's gotta look the part. Doesn't really work all that well after a generation change....doubly so in a platform whose fully-loaded version carries Lincoln badging, and triply so with sub-$4K exgubmint models in the same body as the 2k17 floating around.

This post has me laughing uncontrollably from the amount of absurdity in it. My side is starting to hurt I'm laughing so hard.
 

ExpeditionAndy

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After looking at the 2018 Expedition, I went for broke and bought the 2017 Limited EL. I like the way it looks, It sits a lot higher than my old 05, and it has all of the electronics that I wanted on my Expedition. I thought about and tried to locate a 2016 program Expedition with 25,000 miles on it but could not find an EL that my dealer could pick up at the Ford Lincoln dealer only program car auction. So I bought the new one that was on the lot. The first new vehicle I've bought since 2003.

I got a great deal, $100 below factory invoice, and almost $5,300 in factory rebates.

Andy
 

sgunes

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I am also looking at the 2018 models.
I will be trading in a 2003 4x4 Eddie Bauer which served me very well for 13 years at 110k miles.
My main reason for the new model (besides purchasing price, depreciation, resale value...) is simply the better technology that the newer models have.
Just the collision prevention features (forward emergency braking...) are worth it.
How much is it worth it to you to decrease your risk of a major accident and in case of an accident be in a safer cabin?
 

Clemson82

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I agree that people should buy the vehicle they want for the price that fits. That said, I’m not sure what’s so absurd about Adieu’s comments. Obviously the older style will be a factor in the next few years should someone wish to sell or trade-in. Look at the Explorer values from 2010 to 2011 (generation change), versus the value change from 2011 to 2012. There is a huge difference. If I liked the older body style better than the new, I’d buy the 2017. If I could wait, I’d buy the 2018. A lot of people buy these and drive them “forever”, so it won’t make much difference to them at 10 years and 160k miles.

KBB Values using their suggested mileage per year:
2010 Explorer – Limited – $11,654

2011 Explorer – Limited – $17,141

2012 Explorer – Limited - $19,013
 

dlcorbett

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yea to me its whats your wallet worth to you. i wouldnt be mad at anyone who bought a 16 or 17 as they are still good trucks and can be bought with really good discounts. with that said, i dnt think we should bash the old or new truck for how it looks because at the end of the day sales matters and the tough truck suvs of yore are faraway from todays times and have proven to not sale. ford did its best to give its customers what they wanted, an f150 with a bold design, i mean most ppl by these for their spouses anyeay and 75% of the time they making these final decisions, atleast the truck guys have the f150 interior.
 
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