If you are going by the numbers, you’ll hit the GVWR of the Expedition long before you hit the GCWR. Tongue weights are usually 12-15% of trailer weight, and the published numbers are dry. No propane, no batteries. Don’t forget the weight of the hitch. I think our trailer has a 550lb listed tongue weight and we are much closer to 700lbs. That tongue weight comes right off of the GVWR. In this example, 1382-700=682lbs Add four people at 150lbs ea and you have 82lbs of capacity remaining. If I had to tow with an Expedition, I’d target trailers in the 5000-5500GVWR range. YMMV but if you are talking yourself into something based on the numbers, pick the other numbers.I just checked Ford's website and plugged in my VIN. My GCWR is 15,200#s and door sticker says 7,500#s GVWR / 1,382#s cargo (which suggests a wet vehicle weight of 6,118#s). Based on my math, it would seem a 7,500# trailer would fall within safety spec. If a top WDH is used, it appears to be plenty safe, as long as the driver uses intelligence when towing.
I am looking at an Open Range 2802BHS (with an Andersen No Sway WDH), which on paper, is well within spec.