New purchase dilemma...

[Molaf]

I currently own a 2020 F-150. I am being forced to sell/trade it by years end due to my growing family. My plan is to wait for the 2022 Expy to drop but by then I'm afraid the chip shortage will resolve itself and the value of my truck will tank thanks to excess of 2021s.

So in a perfect world, I would sell the truck and just wait. Unfortunately, that would leave us with 1 vehicle in the house. So should I trade it in for a 2021 Expedition or wait for the 2022? Obviously not going to get a good deal on a 2021 either. What to do, what to do? There's a 2021 Limited Max w/302a, CCD, HD tow, and LSD for $70k at my local dealer.

 

[Deadman]

This inflated market doesn't really help much. The new ones are going to be stupid expensive, so in the end its still going to cost a bunch. There won't be any deals on 22's and your trucks value will be down some by the time they show up.

Do what your family needs. If you don't need it, then just wait.

 

[Going_Going_Gone]

1. Given that your pickup will probably be worth at least as much as you paid for it, or maybe more, will take a little of the sting off what the dealers want for new ones.
2. I seriously doubt that the chip shortage will be resolved soon since I'm reading that GM is now selling some new vehicles without ASS (Auto Stop Start) for a $50 savings so that tells me that there isn't a supply solution on the horizon.

If there's any way to acquire an X-Plan PIN, you will be able to buy a new '22 model, for a similar low price as a 2021 (with the exception of any year-end rebates). That's assuming that what you really want is not currently available. It will also save you from being charged high doc fees as those fees are capped by Ford. If the Expedition available now is what you want, either try to make a deal on it, or use the Internet to find a similar one somewhere where they will deal on theirs. You are holding the cards, not the dealers, no matter what they tell you. Lastly selling outright or trading in depends on the state tax rules on trade-ins; where I live, the value of the trade decreases the amount of taxes you pay on the new vehicle, so what you lose in trade, you might make up in tax savings.

Anyways, take any advice I give with a grain of salt: At this time last year, I was convinced I could wait until December and make a killing on a new car from dealers desperate to meet their Covid-impacted year-end quota...and by mid-December there was nothing available like the wife wanted. A month or so later one came up as "in transit," and I jumped on it but we lost a $2K PCO in the process. A small price to pay for not having to listen to someone telling me that I "made them buy this car."

 

[dlcorbett]

I would think that the 2022s will be revealed within the next month or so. If you can hack the wait atleast until the reveal, then do that. That way, you can make an informed decision on a 21 or 22. Even though there aren't many deals on the 21s, they should still shave some money off of em by yrs end. Also, keep in mind the 22s won't hit lots until December or Jan of nxt yr as well.

 

[Plati]

You can't time the market (stock, real estate, crypto, whatever).
Buy or sell what you need or want when you need or want.

 

[JasonH]

Until Covid, newer Expeditions had fairly high depreciation. I would target something 3 - 4 years old off lease, with a warranty. That way much of the depreciation hit has already been taken by the prior owner. This gives you room to trade up as well, if 2022 is compelling enough and you want to drop the extra coin.

 

[sjwhiteley]

Sell the pickup, buy a cheap junker until the vehicle you want hits the market at a price you can tolerate.

 

[Molaf]

Until Covid, newer Expeditions had fairly high depreciation. I would target something 3 - 4 years old off lease, with a warranty. That way much of the depreciation hit has already been taken by the prior owner. This gives you room to trade up as well, if 2022 is compelling enough and you want to drop the extra coin.

Dunno, been looking at 2018 Platys and Limiteds. Still commanding $50k+. Tbh I’m kind of tired of the interior. This (current truck) is my 3rd Ford vehicle with the same interior since 2016. So the 2022s are very enticing, same with current gen Navis.

 

[JasonH]

Dunno, been looking at 2018 Platys and Limiteds. Still commanding $50k+. Tbh I’m kind of tired of the interior. This (current truck) is my 3rd Ford vehicle with the same interior since 2016. So the 2022s are very enticing, same with current gen Navis.

I think it's because of the shortage. Before COVID they were touching low to mid 40s. I don't think it's a good time to buy anything right now because prices are abnormally high, but newer vehicles will take a bigger depreciation hit than old ones. In 12 - 18 months when things production gets closer to normal, supply will increase and the prices will probably come down for everything.

 

[JamaicaJoe]

I was looking at 2017 models and came across an ad from 3 years ago. I found a better equipped vehicle with 4wd vs 2wd selling for $4K less 3 years ago. Both low mileage vehicles. So the prices are really ramped up perhaps at least $15%.

Sent from my SM-T350 using Tapatalk

 

[Calidad]

The chip shortage will likely be sorted out by next calendar yr. The odd issue will be all the 2021 stuff that finally gets rolled off the factory lots with chips. I’m thinking that February-April there will be a glut of 2021 stuff on dealer lots and deals to be had.

 

[mcb345]

The OP mentioned being tired of the interior. If that’s true then spend a little more $$ on a lightly used CPO Navigator if you are willing.

The 2022 Expedition should have a larger display screen and some minor upgrades but let’s be honest, it’s still a fancy “truck”. If you’re tired of your F150 interior you might like your Expedition interior for 6 months and then be in the same situation.

If you’re willing to pay $70k for a 302a Max then spend another $5-$10k or whatever it might be on a gently used 2019 or 2020 Navigator L Reserve. It will add some really nice features (24 or 30 way power seats, revel audio option, 450hp, etc) and overall just much nicer than the 302a and Platinum.

I have a 2019 Expedition 302a right now and am planning on making the upgrade at some point to a Reserve L because I’m a little bored of the interior, and just want a classier vehicle. I’ve been lowballed on my 302a at dealers though so will just wait for the used car market to fall as I want to trade in at the same dealer for tax reasons.

But, I will say the 302a is a great choice for the bang for your buck. If you haven’t sat in a Platinum or King Ranch you should check those out if you’re looking for something a little more posh but it’s still a truck looking interior of course. Either way, can’t go wrong with Expy or Navigator.

 

[Molaf]

The OP mentioned being tired of the interior. If that’s true then spend a little more $$ on a lightly used CPO Navigator if you are willing.

The 2022 Expedition should have a larger display screen and some minor upgrades but let’s be honest, it’s still a fancy “truck”. If you’re tired of your F150 interior you might like your Expedition interior for 6 months and then be in the same situation.

If you’re willing to pay $70k for a 302a Max then spend another $5-$10k or whatever it might be on a gently used 2019 or 2020 Navigator L Reserve. It will add some really nice features (24 or 30 way power seats, revel audio option, 450hp, etc) and overall just much nicer than the 302a and Platinum.

I have a 2019 Expedition 302a right now and am planning on making the upgrade at some point to a Reserve L because I’m a little bored of the interior, and just want a classier vehicle. I’ve been lowballed on my 302a at dealers though so will just wait for the used car market to fall as I want to trade in at the same dealer for tax reasons.

But, I will say the 302a is a great choice for the bang for your buck. If you haven’t sat in a Platinum or King Ranch you should check those out if you’re looking for something a little more posh but it’s still a truck looking interior of course. Either way, can’t go wrong with Expy or Navigator.

I took a 2018 Navi for a test drive yesterday at my local dealer. It's definitely a great ride and I do like the interior. The audio system is killer. However my dilemma with both it and a Platy is payload. I know if I get a Reserve L, it'll probably have lower payload than a Limited Max. Same with the Platinum.

Now regarding the Expedition interior. I don't mind it. It's that I've had a 2016 F-150, 2019 Expedition, and now this 2020 F-150. So I've just gotten tired of seeing the exact same thing. A minor change with even just a larger center display would be welcomed which is why I do like that the 2022s will be doing that.

 

[ROBERT BONNER]

I'm not sure what the new car lots look like where you're at; but, here in NC you can buy any brand white regular cab pickup with a Reading box on the back that you want....other than that, good luck. My brother in Michigan totaled an Escape and needed a new car last week, he saw them unloading three Edges into a local dealer, two were sold before he got in the door and he bought the third. By the time the car hauler was unloaded, the dealership was back to, you guessed it, 5 white work trucks with utility boxes. They say that you can see the pile of Superdutys/Expeditions outside of Kentucky Truck Plant from the space station with the naked eye. I don't think things are going to be back to normal for a while, you might be stuck occasionally driving two vehicles to your destination.

As for "timing the market". The only way is with excess inventory. I just sold my 2007 F150 Lariat 4x4 with 200K miles for $16K!....to a dealer!!! I still have a 2013 F150, 2012 Mustang, and 2020 Expedition for 3 drivers...so, we can ride out the high prices for a year or two.

Good luck.

 

[spanz]

Sell the pickup, buy a cheap junker until the vehicle you want hits the market at a price you can tolerate.

yep, get a 2010 sequoia suv, or something like that, driving it like you stole it, then trade it in in a year for what you really want.
Old toyotas do not die.

 

[Team_Z]

I was in the same dilemma as you. I bought a 2018 F150 Platinum last year February, every option loaded eco boost. 10k on the clock, 42k out the door. Now, it’s at the dealer for a trans issue that Ford can’t figure out. It has 53k miles on it. I drove a lot last year but had lots of time off so only a fluke. And the dealer gave me 50k trade in for it! So I picked up a 21 Max Platinum 4x4 every option minus the tv screens. Too good of a deal to pass up. Figured by the time Ford irons out all the bugs on the new F150 and passes it on to the Expedition it will be time for me to trade this one in any. I leased this one knowing that the market would tank and depreciation would be an issue. So I have a sweet low payment with max Miles and the depreciation will be fords issue in 2.5 years. I work in the auto industry and have for over 12 years. We have never seen anything like this. I would lease if I were you this time around then buy your next one.

 

[Keith B Morrison]

I'm currently in kind of the same issue. I have a 2018 Expedition Platinum that a couple months ago was appraised at $40k. Today I am selling it back to my dealership for $53k. There is still a loan with $52k left on it so they are basically paying off the loan. I will be switching to a 2021 Ram 1500 10th anniversary edition and although I may pay a couple thousand extra, it is no where near the $13k I gained by them paying of the Expedition. If I was you and you can find the 2021 Expedition that you want and can get an awesome trade in deal...go for it...good luck

 

[LG_123]

I bought on the last day of Ford employee pricing (September 30) in 2019 and got a max platinum with HD tow and 8 seats for $62,500. We didn’t do a trade in. That has seemed like the best time for buying new.

 

[rjdelp7]

I am not sure why a 2020 F-150, will not work for you...I am guessing your having a baby. If it has 4 doors, is basically the same as the Expedition. You mention a second vehicle, what is it? You shouldn't need 2 soccer mom vehicles. How is spending $70K on a new Expedition practical, when starting a family? This is not a good time to buy any vehicle, used or new. The new car market, is being manipulated with shortages. Next year they will be looking for bailouts. That's what I am waiting for.

 

[Molaf]

I am not sure why a 2020 F-150, will not work for you...I am guessing your having a baby. If it has 4 doors, is basically the same as the Expedition. You mention a second vehicle, what is it? You shouldn't need 2 soccer mom vehicles. How is spending $70K on a new Expedition practical, when starting a family? This is not a good time to buy any vehicle, used or new. The new car market, is being manipulated with shortages. Next year they will be looking for bailouts. That's what I am waiting for.

Because I have 3 kids plus 2 more on the way.