New purchase dilemma...

[Molaf]

I currently own a 2020 F-150. I am being forced to sell/trade it by years end due to my growing family. My plan is to wait for the 2022 Expy to drop but by then I'm afraid the chip shortage will resolve itself and the value of my truck will tank thanks to excess of 2021s.

So in a perfect world, I would sell the truck and just wait. Unfortunately, that would leave us with 1 vehicle in the house. So should I trade it in for a 2021 Expedition or wait for the 2022? Obviously not going to get a good deal on a 2021 either. What to do, what to do? There's a 2021 Limited Max w/302a, CCD, HD tow, and LSD for $70k at my local dealer.

 

[Deadman]

This inflated market doesn't really help much. The new ones are going to be stupid expensive, so in the end its still going to cost a bunch. There won't be any deals on 22's and your trucks value will be down some by the time they show up.

Do what your family needs. If you don't need it, then just wait.

 

[Going_Going_Gone]

1. Given that your pickup will probably be worth at least as much as you paid for it, or maybe more, will take a little of the sting off what the dealers want for new ones.
2. I seriously doubt that the chip shortage will be resolved soon since I'm reading that GM is now selling some new vehicles without ASS (Auto Stop Start) for a $50 savings so that tells me that there isn't a supply solution on the horizon.

If there's any way to acquire an X-Plan PIN, you will be able to buy a new '22 model, for a similar low price as a 2021 (with the exception of any year-end rebates). That's assuming that what you really want is not currently available. It will also save you from being charged high doc fees as those fees are capped by Ford. If the Expedition available now is what you want, either try to make a deal on it, or use the Internet to find a similar one somewhere where they will deal on theirs. You are holding the cards, not the dealers, no matter what they tell you. Lastly selling outright or trading in depends on the state tax rules on trade-ins; where I live, the value of the trade decreases the amount of taxes you pay on the new vehicle, so what you lose in trade, you might make up in tax savings.

Anyways, take any advice I give with a grain of salt: At this time last year, I was convinced I could wait until December and make a killing on a new car from dealers desperate to meet their Covid-impacted year-end quota...and by mid-December there was nothing available like the wife wanted. A month or so later one came up as "in transit," and I jumped on it but we lost a $2K PCO in the process. A small price to pay for not having to listen to someone telling me that I "made them buy this car."

 

[dlcorbett]

I would think that the 2022s will be revealed within the next month or so. If you can hack the wait atleast until the reveal, then do that. That way, you can make an informed decision on a 21 or 22. Even though there aren't many deals on the 21s, they should still shave some money off of em by yrs end. Also, keep in mind the 22s won't hit lots until December or Jan of nxt yr as well.

 

[Plati]

You can't time the market (stock, real estate, crypto, whatever).
Buy or sell what you need or want when you need or want.

 

[JasonH]

Until Covid, newer Expeditions had fairly high depreciation. I would target something 3 - 4 years old off lease, with a warranty. That way much of the depreciation hit has already been taken by the prior owner. This gives you room to trade up as well, if 2022 is compelling enough and you want to drop the extra coin.

 

[sjwhiteley]

Sell the pickup, buy a cheap junker until the vehicle you want hits the market at a price you can tolerate.

 

[Molaf]

Until Covid, newer Expeditions had fairly high depreciation. I would target something 3 - 4 years old off lease, with a warranty. That way much of the depreciation hit has already been taken by the prior owner. This gives you room to trade up as well, if 2022 is compelling enough and you want to drop the extra coin.

Dunno, been looking at 2018 Platys and Limiteds. Still commanding $50k+. Tbh I’m kind of tired of the interior. This (current truck) is my 3rd Ford vehicle with the same interior since 2016. So the 2022s are very enticing, same with current gen Navis.

 

[JasonH]

Dunno, been looking at 2018 Platys and Limiteds. Still commanding $50k+. Tbh I’m kind of tired of the interior. This (current truck) is my 3rd Ford vehicle with the same interior since 2016. So the 2022s are very enticing, same with current gen Navis.

I think it's because of the shortage. Before COVID they were touching low to mid 40s. I don't think it's a good time to buy anything right now because prices are abnormally high, but newer vehicles will take a bigger depreciation hit than old ones. In 12 - 18 months when things production gets closer to normal, supply will increase and the prices will probably come down for everything.

 

[JamaicaJoe]

I was looking at 2017 models and came across an ad from 3 years ago. I found a better equipped vehicle with 4wd vs 2wd selling for $4K less 3 years ago. Both low mileage vehicles. So the prices are really ramped up perhaps at least $15%.

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